Looking Forward to 2010: Life during Wartime

Smartbrief on Workforce

Mary Ellen Slayter at Smartbrief was kind enough to include me in a group of bloggers from the Smartbrief on Workforce Advsory Board that she asked to detail our predictions about workforce issues going into 2010.    I can describe my take in two words:

Why talking heads?  All through 2009, people talked at all levels.  President Obama, Congress, the AFL-CIO, Change to Win, Lou Dobbs, Rachel Maddow, and Glenn Beck, constantly had their collectives mouths running – pontificating about a lot of things that essentially didn’t really amount to much at the end of all the talk.  So let’s take a quick look back at what I was talking about last year, and then we will look at where I think things will go next in 2010.

Looking back at 2009 – Once in a lifetime

Here is a quick review of topics I was thinking and writing about a year ago in the early portions of 2009.

Economy

• President Obama
• Bailouts and policy issues
• Survival/failure of the auto industry
• Jobs
• Corporate scandals

HR Topics

• Layoffs
• Resurgent labor unions
• Employee Free Choice Act
• HR and social media
• The impact of the new administration on business

  

  Image via Wikipedia

Personal

• 2009 HR conference schedule
• vacation spots

Looking Forward to 2010 – same as it ever was!

Or more properly, same as it will be!

Ironically, many of the same topics are still in the news today, albeit with different twists or themes.   So, let’s take a look forward at 2010  which would be like 2009, only different!

 

1. President Barack Obama :  His administration has faced many challenges, and seems to be juggling a multitude of tough issues in a  fairly competent matter.   The overall results have been erratic in year one.  I look for more of the same in 2010, and I also look for them to reduce the scope of some of their initiatives during this mid-term election year.   For HR, the biggest impact will come from the agency appointments he made during 2009.  We will start to see their influence assert itself in 2010 from agencies like EEOC, OSHA, and NLRB, if they ever confirm a full board.
2. Bailouts – It is possible that the bank and automotive bailouts are over, but there are other bailouts looming in 2010.  One of the huge issues that employers will face in 2010 is the looming bailout that will be required for pension plans, including union multi-employer plans, underfunded plans for employers, and sooner later, even social security.
3. Survival/failure of GM – $50 billion dollars in US government loans, two CEO’s in 8 months, the UAW, unable to sell Opel, Saab or Saturn, and stuck with a tremendously unproductive and stubborn culture, GM is not even 50/50 to make it all the way through 2010.  The shock waves will be big, but not as bad as they would have been in 2009!
4. Jobs – President Obama will be holding a jobs summit at the White House with 130 business leaders, union chiefs, academics, mayors and representatives of nonprofit group on December 3rd.   At the same time, Congress is reportedly mulling another stimulus to create or save jobs.   The first one didn’t work that well.  The second one won’t either.  Hopefully,  the trend towards mild job growth in the private sector will continue.
5. Corporate scandals – The banks scandals seem to be behind us.  Maddoff is in jail.  Now we just have to worry about Dubai, credit card debt, Citi, GM, and the federal reserve running out of ink to print more money.  I expect to see a few companies collapse in 2010 that will shock the economy, and make us ask: “How did we let that happen ? ”  (again)
6. Layoffs – have leveled off, but will continue to be heavier than we need, but will be more industry sector and company specific.   GM will be having another round of layoffs right after Christmas, if not before.
7. Labor unions – will continue to fight for survival, but continue their slow plunge into obsolescence.  Trumpka and Stern will be divided by their desire for power, driven by their need to grow to survive..   AFL-CIO and Change to Win will remain divided, and clawing at each other.  They will push for EFCA and other changes to relax rules, but it will only prolong the agony.  Labor needs a new model in order to survive.  They don’t know what it is right now.
8. Employee Free Choice Act – will be discussed and feared. Lawyers will make more money. Politicians will use it to get funding for one more election cycle. It will stay buried in the Senate.
9. Health care and the  impact on business – is an unknown. Chances are it will not be as great as many people fear.  The odds are much higher that individuals will hate the new plan (whatever it finally looks like) when they realize that it has directly impacted them in some way.  That will probably be an impact from some form of health care rationing.
10. Social media and HR – will continue to get a lot of discussion.  HR people will either embrace or fear it, but the utilization by HR people will be up at least 10% in 2010 over 2009.  Maybe you will be the next one to get a Facebook page!

2010 Conference Schedule is still firming up.  Right now, I am looking at doing #trulondon2 in February, SHRM National in San Diego, SXSW, and HR Florida in August.  I hope to be making presentations at a couple of other state conferences throughout the year.

I am leaving on vacation  on December 7 for a week of much needed time off!

Life During Wartime

In many ways, it feels like HR/business is stuck in neutral due to the economy, much like the White House, Congress and many employers.  I believe that will change for employers around mid-year 2010, when HR professionals will start seeing more job openings, a return of wage increases, start to face the challenges coming our way from health care changes, and the increased enforcement activity and regulatory changes from various agencies with oversight of labor/workforce policy.

You’ll want to start getting ready for the June rush now!   Good luck!

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